Lending Tree
Thoughts & Comments
Disastrous Fads
Bankers can't seem to resist jumping on the latest bandwagon. The results are always the same.

Vernon Hill  ( about me )
Posted 06/06/2008
bankstocks.com
vhill@bankstocks.com

As imitation has replaced imagination, the banking industry has followed fad after fad for at least the last 15 years, with disastrous results.

Let's have a look at the most pervasive fads, the lessons from each, and what bankers are falling for now.

Deposits don't matter. Wholesale funding is cheaper. Why, as John Reed said, should we worry about the little old lady in Queens when we can borrow in the market?

Lesson: The real value of a bank is in its core deposits. Deposits come with customers who build a banking business. Wholesale funding is an opiate that feels good, is unsustainable, and leaves just when you need it.

The current crisis has again revealed the value of deposits and the risk of wholesale funding. As many mortgage companies self-destructed, Countrywide Financial just managed to survive, because it had some deposit base.

The death of the branch. If deposits don't matter, then customers don't matter. Let's push the customer to electronic delivery and eliminate the high-cost branch.

Lesson: The branch is the cornerstone of any bank, not the millstone. Banks with value-added branch programs prospered by building customers, while almost every major bank that tried to cost-save its way to prosperity lost major market share. The branch has returned with a vengeance.

The 80/20 rule. As applied to banking, the wealthy 20% of your customers produce 80% of your profits, while the rest produce losses. Every customer should be put in the profitable group or thrown out.

Lesson: This is just another excuse for cutting costs. No one can realistically manage customer profitability, because the customer profile is constantly changing.

Merge your way to prosperity. Every major bank merger and acquisition has been accompanied by promises of better customer experience, dramatic cost savings, and fantastic shareholder returns.

Lesson: These major deals usually fail to produce meaningful benefits. Travelers/Citicorp, Wachovia/Golden West, and many others have destroyed service, eliminated jobs, and/or destroyed massive amounts of shareholder value.

Supermarkets. The customer wants a financial supermarket to consolidate his financial assets.

Lesson: Efforts to create these supermarkets are a failure in almost every instance, but the concept is still used as an excuse for overpriced acquisitions.

Data warehousing. How many billions of dollars have been wasted by bankers who believed the consultants who said data warehouses would serve the customer better by retaining and messaging more personal information to provide more cross-selling opportunities?

Lesson: This is a variation of the financial supermarket theory. Is there any proof that data warehousing has produced a profit?

Subprime lending. Let's lend to customers who have a proven ability not to pay. This began as a government-ordered welfare program under the pretense of lending to the underserved. Banks faced scrutiny and orders to serve the subprime market, regardless of credit and risk. If your losses were too low, you needed to take more risk.

Lesson: What a surprise. People with a demonstrated ability not to repay don't repay, 120% LTV loans perform poorly, and people have poor credit records for a reason.

Structured finance. Wall Street can engineer financial instruments that defy the laws of economic gravity. Subprime becomes triple-A, leverage has no limits, off-balance-sheet structures are really independent, and computer geeks, not bankers, control the credit flow.

Lesson: As I have often noted, lending is lending. The old rules of credit and "know your customer" will always apply.

What are the common themes? Replacing banking with financial engineering; divorcing management from basic business values; treating the customer as a number, not an individual; believing in consultants; and responding to a regulatory structure that is always fighting the last war.

The next fad is clearly risk management, the catch phrase for regulators, investors, and managers who believe that computer models can predict and control risk, and that ever-increasing controls can reduce risk.

The credit crisis is another excuse to spend more money and energy on risk management plans. The theory is with improved computer models and additional oversight, management teams will have the ability to predict and eliminate risk.

Basel II is the extreme example of computer modeling and risk management. Operational risk cannot be quantified, and economic risk cannot be predicted. Yet somehow these models are supposed to do that?

Look at how well advanced computer modeling has performed at Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, UBS, and all the rest. AIG, the self-acknowledged master of risk management, has taken $20 billion of losses with more to come. And oops, the Moody's rating model has a glitch: What was rated Aaa should really be four notches lower … sorry.

Yes, we need risk management. Yes, models can help. But like everything else in the financial services, what matters is intelligent, experienced judgment, occasionally surprised by reality.

One thing is for sure — the more the government focuses on something, the more we know it's wrong.

What do you think? Let me know!

(This article originally appeard in American Banker.)


  Add your comment

 

 

bookokane Posted On 6/6/2008 12:38:40 PM

KeyCorp Chairman Henry Meyer should receive this article.

humvee63 Posted On 6/6/2008 2:37:36 PM

You forgot all of the different lending fads htat have occurred over the last 30 years or so that ended in failure - energy sector, sovereign risk, etc. The same degree of lack of commonsense plus the herd instinct.

sunraj Posted On 6/7/2008 9:54:21 PM

Good article. However I can only imagine this cycle will get much worse under the next, supermajority-fueled, administration.

Ted Posted On 6/9/2008 12:58:39 PM

All risks should be quantified. We take a risk in getting out of bed in the morning. We are in the banking business to take and manage risk. The breakdown of the mortgage market has several factors, most of which you identified in your paper. Most bankers look to another entity to quantify risk verses managing the risk themselves. If one cannot understand the risk, they should not buy the risk. If you want to gamble, go to Vegas, at least they give you free booze. Using bad rate tables you can identify what percentage of defaults you will have. That assumption is based upon volume. Severity of loss is another issue which is compounding the current market. This is the key issue the rating agencies blew the ratings on the subprime securities. The leveraging of these pools, along with the drop in property values has blown up the loss projections. Rating agencies, isn't it great, not to have skin in the game.

retiree Posted On 6/9/2008 2:08:55 PM

You are so right about passing the buck to consultants. In the early 80's I worked at Marine Midland. They hired consultants to "analyze" their business line profitability. They were so unaware of how banks worked they assigned fixed costs to the product bankers acceptances based on how many drafts were used to document the instrument. A $5,000,000 B.A. was allocated 200 units of cost because the drafts were in denominations of $25,000. This is just one example of the many ridiculous calculations which resulted in the death spiral which ended in their acqusition by HSBC. It's much too easy to write a check instead of using your brain and working to understand the risks you are taking. The larger the organization, the less likely management knows whats going on.

cg Posted On 6/17/2008 11:23:33 AM

I love Basel II. In the Columbus OH market Bank One was first to implement and the competition drained away one good customer after another. Thanks central Bankers and econometricians, I had some great bonues! P.S. Yeah we all love to feel that we've been data mined don't we. Someone must have confused cleverness with service.

elmar98 Posted On 7/22/2008 7:25:42 PM

Which of the banks that you are aware of follow the business and lending rules of your old Commerce Bank?
Ad for inter-arch
Ad for Bankstocks
 

     Bankstocks.com is a public web site operated by individuals who also operate investment advisory firms that serve as investment advisers to hedge funds (the "Firms"). Some articles are authored by employees of the Firms while others are authored by third parties. Under no circumstances does any article posted on Bankstocks.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. This article is intended to provide insight into the financial services industry and is not a solicitation of any kind. The Firms do not vouch for the accuracy of any information contained in any article posted herein and the views expressed in any article herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Firms. The Firms buy and sell securities on behalf of their fund investors and may do so, before and after any particular article herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article posted herein. The Firms’ appraisal of a company's prospects is only one factor that affects the Firms’ decision whether to buy or sell shares in that company. Other factors might include, but are not limited to, the presence of mandatory limits on individual positions, decisions regarding portfolio exposures, and general market conditions, and liquidity needs. As such, there may not always be consistency between the views expressed in this article and the Firms’ trading on behalf of their fund investors. There may be conflicts between the content posted on Bankstocks.com and the interests of the Firms. For an explanation of these conflicts, including an explanation of our trading policy, and how we resolve them, click here.

Neither the authors nor any Bankstocks.com team members can provide investment advice or respond to individual requests for recommendations. However, we encourage your feedback and welcome your comments on any of the articles on this site. Neither the authors nor Bankstocks.com has undertaken any responsibility to update any portion of this article in response to events which may transpire subsequent to its original publication date.